Peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, dubbed the ‘Islamabad talks’ by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, commenced on Saturday. The U.S. delegation is headed by Vice President JD Vance, while Iran’s team is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. These discussions occur during a tenuous ceasefire between the two countries. U.S. President Donald Trump declared a two-week truce, noting that Pakistan’s Prime Minister and Army Chief General Asim Munir had urged Washington to negotiate with Tehran. Pakistan’s government confirmed that the meetings would occur on its territory. The country is eager for a resolution due to multiple factors, including maintaining positive relations with the Trump administration, averting conflict spread to its unstable western areas, and steering clear of direct clashes with Iran.
Given the unpredictable nature of both parties and their mutual influence, the prospects for a successful agreement seem limited. Should the talks falter, Pakistan could face unforeseen and severe consequences.
Pakistan’s choice to facilitate these discussions goes beyond seeking international prominence; it is a move driven by the need for self-protection. Analysts indicate that a failure could rapidly heighten tensions, potentially pulling Pakistan into disputes. This push for a deal is viewed as an attempt to avoid entanglement in hostilities with Iran, especially considering Pakistan’s defense agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Raza Rumi, a Pakistani analyst based in the U.S., stated in a DW report that Pakistan aims to regain diplomatic influence by acting as a reliable mediator, drawing on its connections with Washington, Tehran, and major Gulf states.
If the negotiations break down, Pakistan could encounter a dire situation. Its location at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East makes it vulnerable to any intensification of Iranian conflicts. Additionally, Pakistan’s strong military alliance with Saudi Arabia, a key adversary of Iran, adds to the complexity.
South Asia specialist Abdul Basit informed the BBC that Pakistan risks a ‘nightmare’ if talks collapse, possibly forcing it into combat with neighboring Iran due to its defense commitments to Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia entered a mutual defense agreement in September of the previous year, stipulating that an attack on one would be treated as an attack on both. Despite this, Pakistan did not participate in the conflict with Iran, even after Iran targeted Saudi Arabia in reprisal.
Pakistan has denounced Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. On April 7, its foreign ministry issued a firm rebuke of an Iranian assault on Saudi energy sites. A security official, as reported by local media outlet The National, affirmed Pakistan’s support for Riyadh under the pact and readiness to engage if the situation worsens.
The tensions eased following Trump’s ceasefire announcement that day.
Experts emphasize that these U.S.-Iran talks are critical for Pakistan, which cannot risk involvement in a Middle Eastern war. The primary concerns include ongoing conflicts with Afghanistan and rising unrest in Balochistan. If the discussions fail, Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan, Iran, and India could all become active conflict zones.
Kamran Bokhari, a senior fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, explained to Reuters that Pakistan seeks to prevent instability in Iran from worsening its already strained security along the western border.
Pakistan’s combined military and civilian leadership has consistently avoided deeper involvement in the Iran conflict. This stance was clear when Pakistan initiated military actions against Afghanistan, escalating its own regional issues. Reports indicate that Army Chief Asim Munir aimed to avoid displeasing Trump or associating with attacks on Iran.
As the sole U.S. ally bordering Iran, Pakistan might face requests from Washington for access to its airbases and military facilities in any escalation against Tehran. This would create significant challenges for Islamabad.
For leaders like Army Chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, navigating this would require balancing strategic and political priorities. Their desire to preserve strong U.S. relations means rejecting such demands could prove difficult.
