Intel Corporation has emerged as a top performer in the S&P 500, driven by a nine-day rally that boosted its market value by more than $100 billion. Recent positive developments have renewed investor confidence in the chipmaker’s potential for a significant recovery after years of lagging performance due to concerns over its semiconductor production capabilities. The stock recorded its strongest weekly gain since January 2020 and climbed 53% over nine trading days, including Monday’s session. This marks the largest such increase in the company’s history since its 1971 public debut.
‘It has clearly moved beyond a critical phase,’ noted Thomas Hayes, chairman and managing member at Great Hill Capital, which manages around $1 billion in assets and holds Intel shares.
The surge began with an early April deal where Intel committed $14.2 billion to repurchase half of an Irish facility from Apollo Global Management, signaling advancement in its revival efforts.
‘It views itself as expanding rather than merely surviving,’ Hayes added. Shares increased 3.1% on Monday.
Further momentum came last week from Intel’s involvement in Elon Musk’s Terafab initiative to produce chips for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. This was complemented by Google’s plan to incorporate upcoming Intel Xeon processors in its data centers.
The stock has risen 72% year-to-date, following an 84% gain last year fueled by investments from Nvidia, SoftBank Group, and the U.S. government. The government’s holding is now valued at about $27 billion, over three times its initial outlay and nearly matching annual U.S. spending on childcare.
‘The story around Intel continues to gain speed,’ wrote Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research, in a client note on Friday, as he increased his price target for the third time this year. ‘Its role as a key foundry asset is being confirmed regularly.’
Despite the gains, the stock remains 8% below its 2020 peak, while the S&P 500 has advanced over 100%, partly due to growth in AI chip leaders like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron Technology.
Analysts remain cautious. Among 52 tracked by Bloomberg, only 10 recommend buying, with six suggesting sell—more than twice the S&P 500 average. Intel’s consensus rating is 3.15 out of five, the lowest among semiconductor firms. It trades above the average price target, hinting at possible overextension.
The stock’s valuation exceeds 90 times forward earnings estimates, a record high since the early 1980s, over 50% above dot-com bubble levels and compared to a chip index average of 21.
Still, some experts advocate a long-term perspective. Intel is forecasted to report a 17-cent per share loss this year, but earnings are expected to reach 33 cents in 2027 and $2.13 by 2029.
Jay Goldberg of Seaport Group, who upgraded the stock in 2026, believes analysts may undervalue Intel’s future profits. While sector valuations are extreme, he argues Intel has stronger potential to exceed expectations than peers like Nvidia, given its recent challenges.
