Earlier this month, the world observed as the U.S. space agency dispatched four astronauts on a journey around the moon. However, to achieve a landing on its surface, the United States finds itself in another space competition, this time against China, which might emerge victorious. Both nations aim to construct inhabited outposts on the moon—the initial human settlements on another world—while exploring for scarce materials and utilizing the outer space setting to evaluate technologies for upcoming manned trips to Mars. The generously supported Chinese space agency competes with its American counterpart. Although the U.S. agency benefits from prior experience gained through its past lunar landings in the 1960s and 1970s, it now operates with a much smaller portion of the national budget than before. The American organization also faces disruptions from shifts in administration every four years, complicating adherence to long-term strategies—a challenge not encountered by Chinese engineers in their single-party system. To accelerate progress, the U.S. has delegated essential project elements to commercial companies, including those headed by wealthy entrepreneurs seeking to profit from the expanding space industry. Two prominent firms are hastening to develop and construct vehicles for moon landings, targeting test launches next year. In contrast to the 20th-century contest between the Soviet Union and the United States, this modern rivalry resembles a prolonged endurance event, involving extensive efforts to conduct numerous operations over several years. An astrophysicist and rocket specialist noted that the key is not who reaches the moon first, but which country sustains repeated visits. The nation that maintains ongoing activity will gain the advantage in establishing dominance in space. Given the unclear international agreements on space activities, the first to set up operations on the moon’s valuable terrain could influence future regulations. Nonetheless, the initial crewed return flight would represent a significant achievement, boosting national pride and projecting influence abroad. The U.S. agency often emphasizes this rivalry to generate urgency and secure funding from lawmakers. Its administrator recently described the situation as a worldwide struggle for control of space’s strategic positions, stressing the importance of not falling behind. The timeline is close: the U.S. targets a landing in 2028, though delays are possible, while China aims for 2030 but might achieve it earlier. The outcome could hinge on differences of mere months. China’s manned space efforts began in the 1990s but have gained momentum over the last quarter-century, involving collaborations with military and domestic enterprises. Although China has not yet sent astronauts beyond near-Earth orbits, it operates its own orbital station and boasts a strong history of meeting deadlines, unlike its American rival. An expert commented that China reliably achieves its announced goals and has surpassed Russia in most aspects of space capabilities, pursuing a methodical program. A decade ago, a former U.S. official warned lawmakers that after defeating the Soviets in the lunar race, America had diminished its focus on space, allowing China to advance. In response, over the past decade, the U.S. has revitalized its human spaceflight initiative, named after a mythological figure linked to the moon. This effort reached a milestone this month with the first crewed trip near the moon since 1972. Meanwhile, China—naming its lunar projects after a traditional moon deity—has made substantial strides, setting new benchmarks. This year, it became the first to collect samples from the moon’s hidden side via an uncrewed mission. A follow-up probe is planned for late 2026 to search for frozen water at the lunar south pole, essential for long-term human habitation. A leading Chinese researcher involved in the program reported steady advancements, highlighting successes like cultivating a plant on the moon in 2019 and hatching an insect in space. China frequently tests hardware for human missions, which will employ a powerful rocket to deploy a spacecraft designed for lunar travel.
