Iran is preparing for the difficult shift from wartime unity to a divided peace that could bring hyperinflation, a 10 percent economic contraction, power shortages and demands for a government to halt its crackdown on dissent. Although peace remains uncertain, internal regime debates about the country’s direction are emerging as leaders consider how to manage postwar conditions. Discussions on platforms such as Azad explore possible postwar paths. Some favor greater openness, while others close to the negotiating team, including Saeed Ajorlou, argue that Iran should pursue development through self-reliance after dispelling perceptions of weakness. Outcomes will hinge partly on whether Donald Trump reduces sanctions and releases frozen assets, though most Iranian economists expect only limited relief compared with the roughly $270 billion in war-related losses to infrastructure, schools, energy, steel and housing. Commentators such as Fuad Habibi, a sociology professor at the University of Kurdistan, avoid terms like social collapse but note that the grievances behind January protests have worsened. He observed rising economic hardship and livelihood complaints, with price surges linked to naval blockades and conflict effects, plus at least two million indirect job losses from internet restrictions. Without formal channels for protest through parties or unions, unrest can arise unexpectedly. Current cohesion stems from an external threat, yet internal divisions may surface once that pressure eases. Should a deal end the fighting, Iran would face food inflation at its highest level since the Second World War, reaching 130 percent in May, with meat and poultry at 176 percent. Health experts warn of rising malnutrition, osteoporosis and stunted growth as dairy products disappear from diets. Former communications minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi cautioned that the next pressure could come through inflation affecting household costs, asking whether economic defenses are prepared. President Masoud Pezeshkian has been tasked with maintaining government functions and has warned of difficult times ahead while urging social unity. The energy ministry denied imminent two-hour blackouts despite infrastructure damage, though Arash Najafi of the Iranian chamber of commerce advised preparation for daily shutdowns to sustain production. Incentives include 30 percent discounts for 10 percent consumption cuts. Internet censorship is easing gradually, prompting hardliners to seek the communications minister’s impeachment. Political activist Rahim Ghomeishi wrote that the nation cannot accept poverty or routine executions as normal and must address public exclusion from decisions. While debate centers on talks with the United States and limits on uranium enrichment, many see ending economic restrictions as the main goal, though expected gains fall short of a windfall. Economist Albert Baghzian noted challenges in an economy of Iran’s size given current policy efficiency.
