Three of the four years which saw June rainfall below 100 mm — 1926, 2009 and 2014 — were also affected by El Nino.
With more than 43% rainfall deficit, June 2026, the first month of monsoon, is now likely to emerge as the fifth driest-ever with less than 4 mm of rainfall recorded on an average every day over the last one week.
June was expected to bring 165.3 mm of rainfall, which is the long-period average, for the country as a whole. Since 1901, when rainfall records for India are available, June rainfall has been below 100 mm only for four years — 1905, 1926, 2009 and 2014. The driest June was in 2009 when India received just 87.5 mm rainfall.
This year, until Sunday, the country has recorded only 85.2 mm rainfall.
Such a large deficit for June is likely to force a reassessment of the seasonal forecast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted 92% rainfall for June, and 90% for the four-month monsoon season. The remaining months are likely to get impacted by the El Nino which is yet to reach its peak, and is continuing to gain in strength.
