A new study indicates that during emergencies, people tend to evacuate toward locations with familiar social networks rather than solely based on proximity or safety. Researchers from NYU Tandon examined anonymized mobile phone data from over 200,000 devices during the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, which destroyed more than 1,000 homes. They paired movement records with demographic information and social connection metrics between areas. Results showed evacuees often selected destinations resembling their original communities or linked by personal ties. Most moved 20 to 60 kilometers away. Compared to models using only population and distance, actual choices scored higher on demographic similarity and social links. Wealthier, predominantly white, and higher-educated residents more frequently reached such supportive locations, while Black, Asian, and lower-income groups had fewer options. Stronger social ties also correlated with higher return rates after initial displacement, though demographic similarity sometimes reduced returns. The findings, published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, suggest emergency planning could benefit from considering community connections to improve aid distribution and support for vulnerable populations.
