Even after lowering its planned IPO valuation to between 30 and 40 billion dollars from a prior private peak near 100 billion, Shein encounters skepticism about whether decelerating sales, higher expenses and shifting conditions support that level. Five investors who joined briefings or examined recent statements before a Hong Kong listing possibly launching August 19 expressed doubts that the fast-fashion firm can regain the expansion pace that supported its earlier high valuation. One attendee noted the outlook remains difficult because Shein remains essentially a supply-chain operator facing intense rivalry and margin pressure. Management pointed to chances for growing its own brands, yet the investor saw limited new potential there. Another participant described Shein as a maturing online retailer whose valuation must align with tempered expectations. A third suggested a single-digit earnings multiple similar to PDD Holdings would be appropriate. Such a reduction would affect founders, who must issue extra shares to early backers if the price drops below set floors. Shein representatives offered no comment. Morgan Stanley analysts projected a fair-value band of 39 to 52 billion dollars based on 18 to 24 times estimated 2027 earnings, benchmarked against peers like Inditex and H&M. The bank, serving as a sponsor with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, did not reply to requests for comment. Shein must persuade investors that the sharp slowdown is temporary. Revenue grew 41 percent in 2023 and 21 percent in 2024, yet Coresight forecasts only 2 percent growth this year after customs changes raised costs in major markets. The European Union added fees on small parcels in July, following the prior U.S. removal of duty-free treatment, eroding Shein’s direct-shipping edge and prompting investment in local warehouses. Coresight’s John Mercer expects Shein to expand elsewhere while limiting cost pass-through to European buyers ahead of the offering. Investors are also reviewing customer data in the filing. Annual active users rose to 273 million in 2025 from 230 million, but purchase frequency stayed near four orders yearly, indicating new shoppers arrive without deeper engagement. Marketing outlays increased to 1.43 billion dollars in the first quarter from 1.09 billion a year earlier. Presentations emphasized operational technology yet offered little on growth drivers now favored in AI-related sectors. A source close to Shein said the company is not positioning itself as an AI play and instead treats the technology as an efficiency tool for its supply chain.
