In recent years, particularly between 2024 and 2025, China has faced a significant tightening of its peripheral security and geopolitical environment, unlike anything seen since the Cold War. The major power competition in the Asia-Pacific region has become fully structured, with the security policies of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India accelerating their outward focus. This has led to a cascading effect of external pressures on China. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) has reinforced its supply chain rules; the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral mechanism has deepened; the Philippines has reopened military bases to the U.S.; Japan has strengthened its missile counterstrike capabilities and deployed missiles in areas near Taiwan, with defense spending expected to rise; and India has rapidly integrated with the U.S. and European tech and military-industrial chains while maintaining a high-pressure stance along its border areas.
