In the 1960s, environmentalist Paul Ehrlich warned that excessive population growth would exhaust Earth’s resources and lead to widespread famine. His dire forecasts influenced discussions on planetary sustainability, even discouraging some from starting families. However, Ehrlich’s predictions proved inaccurate. Now, as concerns about overpopulation fade, a new demographic challenge emerges: birth rates are dropping too low. This issue is pressing. Recent government data released last week indicate that the US fertility rate—the average number of children a woman has in her lifetime—could accelerate its decline, reaching a historic low of 1.57 in 2025, lower than the 1.62 estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in January of the previous year. This falls well short of the 2.1 needed for population stability, a level not achieved since the 2008 Great Recession. Although the population is not yet decreasing, it is aging rapidly. While this won’t cause food shortages, it threatens the fragile basis of US social security. In 2000, there were roughly 24 people aged 65 or older per 100 working-age adults. By mid-century, that figure is projected to rise to 43, per CBO estimates. Taxes from a shrinking workforce must support Medicare and Social Security for an expanding retiree group, exacerbating deficits and debt. Expenditures on elderly benefits are expected to increase from 6% of GDP at the start of the century to 12.7% by 2055, mainly due to aging, according to CBO forecasts. The CBO anticipates the primary fiscal deficit will hit about 2% of GDP by the 2040s. Analysts from the Federal Reserve and the Aspen Economic Strategy Group suggest it would be in surplus if the elderly-to-working-age ratio stabilized in 2025. Declining birth rates are a worldwide trend. This isn’t unique to the US. Fertility is decreasing globally, in both affluent nations with already low rates and developing countries with higher ones. Two-thirds of the world’s people reside in nations where rates are below replacement levels. This contributes to escalating public debt, projected to approach 94% of global GDP in 2025 and reach 100% by 2029, a year sooner than earlier IMF estimates from April 2025. In China, where a long-standing one-child policy resulted in one of the lowest fertility rates globally, the IMF predicts aging will reduce annual GDP growth by almost two percentage points from 2024 to 2050 and increase pension costs by nearly 10% of GDP. Among OECD industrialized countries, aging is forecasted to raise pension and health expenditures by 3% of GDP. This might not concern staunch environmentalists who still advocate population control to ease ecological pressures. Tech leaders in Silicon Valley may also view stagnant working-age populations favorably, coinciding with AI’s potential to replace human labor. However, lower birth rates won’t preserve the environment. Sharp reductions in carbon emissions are needed in the coming decades, but populations don’t shift quickly enough. Research indicates that even if global fertility rose to just over two children per woman, the Earth’s temperature in 2200 would increase by less than 0.1C. Advocates of population reduction overlook how human progress overcame environmental limits through ingenuity. Just as farming advancements sustained more people on finite land, decarbonization demands massive zero-emission energy development. Yet innovation requires people. Smaller populations mean fewer inventors. Reduced economies offer less funding for costly innovations and smaller markets to support them. It’s notable that the baby boom generation spurred pharmaceutical advances for age-related health issues as they grew older. Optimistic researchers argue that boosting family support spending could encourage more births. In developed countries, declining fertility stems partly from the high costs women face in pausing education or careers for childbearing. Yet data shows that even nations with substantial investments in childcare and family aid haven’t reliably increased rates. The Trump administration has proposed measures, including creating $1,000 accounts named after him for each child born during his term. It has also suggested educating women on their menstrual cycles to better time conception efforts.
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