The El NiƱo pattern that formed in the Pacific last month has strengthened and is projected to rank among the most intense in over 75 years, according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Sea surface temperatures at least 1C above average have expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The agency assigns an 81 percent probability that the event will rank among the largest since 1950, with some eastern areas recently reaching 2.7C above normal. Forecasters anticipate the phenomenon will continue into 2027, carrying a 97 percent chance of lasting through early spring of that year. Stronger episodes tend to increase the likelihood of typical regional effects. The pattern is monitored by traders and officials because it can produce floods, droughts, temperature shifts, and changes in Atlantic and Pacific storm activity. It raises wind shear in the Caribbean, limiting hurricane formation during the season that started in June. In the southern United States it often brings cooler and wetter winter conditions, while Australia faces higher chances of drought and fires. In India the event has already reduced reservoir levels and strained electricity supplies amid high summer demand. Hydroelectric output dropped 21 percent from the prior year, the largest decline since February 2024. Dam generation fell nearly 7 percent in the quarter ending in June, with coal, nuclear, and renewable sources increasing production to cover record consumption caused by extreme heat. AccuWeather lowered its Atlantic named-storm outlook to between 8 and 14, compared with its earlier range of 11 to 16. The long-term average is 14 named storms.
