India needs a fivefold economic expansion within roughly ten years to reach a $20 trillion GDP by 2036. This goal hinges on about 20 reforms grouped into five engines, most already available to policymakers, according to a policy analysis from Equirus. The nation required 67 years to reach its first $2 trillion in GDP but achieved the next $2 trillion in just one decade. Success will depend more on the nature of growth than its speed. The report notes that China maintained nearly 18 percent nominal dollar growth for 11 consecutive years from a similar starting point. Quality reforms will determine whether India meets the target. Agriculture currently accounts for about 17 percent of GDP and is projected to decline further with urbanization. Manufacturing, at 17 to 20 percent, faces limits from global protectionism. Services, already at 54 percent, must expand beyond 65 percent, growing from around $2 trillion to over $11 trillion. Reforms should focus on enabling this services-led shift. The five engines require coordinated action. In the real economy, suggested measures include a decade-long tax holiday for cold storage to reduce post-harvest losses, inclusion of fuel under GST to ease costs for small businesses, a required minimum for state capital expenditure, and listing the railways to free up public funds. For capital markets, proposals involve creating a sovereign fund modeled on Singapore’s Temasek to manage government equity holdings, equalizing tax rules for bonds and equities, gradually adjusting small-savings rates to channel more funds into market instruments, and simplifying tax procedures such as eliminating advance tax and reducing withholding rates to a flat 5 percent. Additional steps include reviving Indian depository receipts and removing the double transaction tax on shares.
