NCP(SP) leader Supriya Sule indicated on Wednesday that her party might back the delimitation Bill for women’s reservation if the government guarantees a 50 percent seat increase for all states. The statement has caused fresh uncertainty within the INDIA bloc. Already weakened by recent splits and defections, senior alliance leaders now question whether opposition unity can again block the measure, as it did in April.
Since the Constitution amendment Bill failed, 37 Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha members from four anti-BJP parties have joined the ruling side. This marks the largest shift from opposition to treasury benches since the anti-defection law was passed in 1985.
Sule’s comments have unsettled several opposition figures. Leaders contacted by The Indian Express expressed doubt that the INDIA bloc would remain united if the NDA government reintroduces the Bill in the four-week Monsoon Session starting Monday.
The NCP(SP) holds nine parliamentary seats. With three vacancies, the Lok Sabha currently has 540 members, setting the two-thirds threshold at 360. In April, 528 members voted and the threshold was 352. The government secured 298 votes while the opposition obtained 230. The NDA then held 293 seats; after splits in Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), its strength has risen to 319. NCP(SP) support would lift the NDA to 327, still 33 short of two-thirds.
In the Rajya Sabha, 242 of 245 seats are filled. Three by-elections in Bengal on July 24 are expected to go to the NDA, raising its tally to 155 against a two-thirds mark of 164. NCP(SP) backing would push the NDA to 156.
Government sources said the Bill would return only after regional parties’ demands are met and a two-thirds majority is assured in both houses. Speaker Om Birla is expected to recognise breakaway Sena (UBT) and TMC factions before Parliament reconvenes on July 20.
Some opposition leaders viewed Sule’s remarks as a signal to restive NCP(SP) MPs after the Sena (UBT) split. Others noted that several regional parties, especially from the Hindi belt, favour a uniform 50 percent seat increase. Samajwadi Party and JMM positions remain unclear. An SP MP said the party cannot align with the BJP ahead of Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, yet another leader warned that outright opposition could hurt the party’s image in Uttar Pradesh.
Tactical options such as a walkout were also discussed. Government sources indicated that parties including DMK had privately accepted the 50 percent increase proposal but voted against the Bill under Congress pressure. With several regional parties now distancing themselves from Congress, they may no longer oppose a revised Bill. DMK sources said the party could support or abstain depending on the government’s response to its demands.
