A University of Barcelona study examined how an unexpected 2004 Spanish election outcome influenced economic expectations and demographic trends. The PSOE victory over the PP, contrary to polls, boosted optimism among winning party supporters while sharply reducing confidence among losing party backers. In municipalities with strong PP support, researchers observed fewer pregnancies, a temporary rise in abortions, and fewer marriages in the months after the vote.
Published in the Journal of Population Economics, the analysis drew on administrative data from 2000 to 2020 across national elections. It found that political events in polarized societies can shape personal choices on fertility and marriage beyond public opinion.
