As Anthropic readies for a potentially historic initial public offering, investors are focusing on future earnings rather than current results to determine its value. The company forecasts 2028 revenue between $190 billion and $200 billion, according to individuals aware of its finances. This outlook far exceeds the $47 billion run rate reported in May and highlights the expansion investors must support. Analysts apply enterprise value-to-revenue ratios drawn from projections, a standard method for fast-growing software firms lacking established profits. Projecting two years forward is uncommon and stems from Anthropic’s rapid scaling plus heavy outlays on AI systems. Similar forward-looking estimates appeared in recent IPOs by Cerebras Systems and SpaceX. Comparable public firms include Cloudflare, Palantir and SpaceX, with multiples ranging from 41 to 53 times expected revenue. Anthropic’s revenue run rate rose from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $47 billion by May, with a second-quarter 2026 target above $10.9 billion. The firm expects its first quarterly operating profit of $559 million. Growth has exceeded tenfold annually for three years through early 2026. Valuation depends on revenue eventually outpacing costs for infrastructure, training and staff, improving margins over time.
