Aukus will rank among the poorest defence and foreign policy choices made by any Australian government, former foreign minister Gareth Evans told an inquiry. He said the pact is allowed only because Donald Trump wants to counter Chinese nuclear risks to the United States. Giving evidence on Thursday to an independent review of the $368 billion nuclear submarine agreement with the US and UK, Evans, who served in the Hawke and Keating cabinets, described the planned transfer and local construction of submarines from the early 2030s as little more than an extension of the American fleet. He warned that a future US administration would not defend Australia during an existential attack and would intervene only if American assets in Australia faced direct threat. Evans dismissed the idea that extended nuclear deterrence would prompt Washington to risk San Francisco for Sydney or Miami for Melbourne, calling the notion a long-standing delusion. The former minister, who held the foreign affairs portfolio from 1988 to 1996, told the Melbourne hearing that delivery of three Virginia-class submarines beginning in 2032 was improbable due to US construction delays and fleet shortages. He added that the second phase, involving UK-designed and Australian-built Aukus-class boats, demanded even greater optimism because of reported strains on Britain’s defence industry, rising costs and uncertain schedules despite Australia’s $4.5 billion contribution over ten years. Evans described the government’s cost estimates as speculative and said Washington would treat the vessels mainly as supplementary assets under US command for tracking and neutralising Chinese submarines that threaten the American mainland. Associate Professor Tilman Ruff of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons told the inquiry that Aukus would heighten regional tensions and make Australia a higher-value target, including for nuclear strikes. He noted that the use of weapons-grade uranium would weaken non-proliferation norms and that Australia lacks a plan for managing hundreds of kilograms of high-level radioactive waste over geological timeframes. Ruff also highlighted Australia’s history of siting waste facilities against community wishes and warned that declaring defence land could override democratic processes. The inquiry, supported by trade unions and the Australian Peace and Security Forum and chaired by former Labor minister Peter Garrett and ex-defence chief Chris Barrie, will hold further hearings before reporting in October. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said she and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles had discussed Aukus with UK counterparts, noting that the first steel for the new submarines would be cut next year despite British program overruns.
