On May 7, millions of people in Great Britain will vote in elections that could significantly affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s administration. Nationalist groups are poised to gain control in Wales and Scotland for the first time together, alongside Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland. Green Party candidates are gaining momentum in London and other urban areas. However, the greatest threat to Starmer comes from Labour’s traditional strongholds in the post-industrial regions of the Midlands and northern England, where Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could capture hundreds of council seats.
This outcome would concern several senior government officials whose constituencies lie in these formerly reliable ‘red wall’ areas, such as Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Ed Miliband, Dan Jarvis, and Bridget Phillipson. The Guardian interviewed residents and officials in three long-time Labour areas—Barnsley, Sunderland, and Wakefield—to gauge public sentiment.
In Barnsley, Stephen Houghton, the town’s council leader for over 30 years and England’s longest-serving in that role, has overseen major changes since the coal mine closures that eliminated 20,000 jobs. Despite local successes, Houghton notes that discussions with voters are overshadowed by two main concerns: the prime minister and immigration. Knighted in 2013 for his work in local governance, Houghton describes the situation as grim, warning that the government risks a major setback in the coming years unless it recovers from potential losses soon.
Farage, who campaigned in Barnsley recently, believes Reform UK can end Labour’s control of the council, established in 1974. Houghton argues that Labour must shed its image as an urban-focused party and prioritize investments in technology, defense, and infrastructure for the Midlands and north.
In the nearby village of Cudworth, Richard Key, 55, who runs a hardware store, reports that many former Labour supporters among his customers are switching to Reform UK and vow never to return. Key calls the national Labour administration ineffective but plans to support it locally for its community efforts. Jason Evans, a healthcare worker, shares this view, praising local services for his family but criticizing the government for not fulfilling commitments and misallocating benefits.
Reform UK’s candidates in Barnsley include one featured in a 2014 documentary about arranging a marriage with a woman from Thailand for household tasks, another who claims to be a spiritual medium offering services to contact past lives and remove spirits, and a third who faced backlash for ridiculing a shopper’s use of disability benefits in a social media post. Party supporters recognize that most voters focus on the party brand rather than candidate backgrounds.
In Sunderland, Labour suffered a major defeat last year in nearby County Durham, dropping from 94 seats in 2017 to just five now, with Reform UK dominating. Similar results are anticipated in upcoming all-seat elections for councils in Sunderland, Gateshead, and South Tyneside, all currently under Labour control with no Reform representatives. Farage selected Sunderland to kick off his party’s local campaign, signaling high expectations.
Conversations with locals show substantial backing for Reform, though not overwhelmingly. The party has experienced recent losses in by-elections in Durham and Northumberland. Many express deep frustration with all politicians. Ronnie Smyth, a retired construction worker shopping with his wife Joyce, called Starmer ineffective and said Labour no longer represents working people, now favoring the wealthy. The couple is considering abstaining from voting altogether.
