Alan Milburn, a former cabinet minister under Blair now advising on social mobility, has released the initial section of his official report on rising numbers of 16- to 24-year-olds not in education, employment or training. The 217-page document examines the scale and reasons behind the problem, with solutions reserved for a follow-up report. It paints a detailed and critical picture of what Milburn describes as a record of failure that harms young people. Key findings include the growing scale of the issue. Roughly one million young people in the UK fall into this category, or about one in eight, with the situation worsening both in numbers and proportion. A decade ago the UK rate was close to the EU average, yet by 2025 only Romania had a higher figure. The problem has also become more persistent, with six in ten of those affected never having held a job, compared with four in ten in 2005. Milburn warns of a potential lost generation carrying moral and economic costs estimated at £125 billion. The report links the trend strongly to inequality, pointing to structural factors such as wealth, background, location and ethnicity rather than individual attitudes. Local variations are stark: just 1% of 16- and 17-year-olds in Barnet are affected, versus 21.5% in Dudley. Eight of the ten English areas with the highest rates lie in the north or Midlands. Risk factors include lower GCSE results, additional educational needs, persistent absence, care experience and young carer responsibilities. Geography adds further barriers, including transport access, while London benefits from better public options. Health, especially mental health, is now central to both entry and persistence in this status. More than half of those affected are economically inactive rather than unemployed, often due to anxiety, depression or neurodevelopmental conditions. Long-term reliance on health-related benefits is common, with seven in ten still claiming a decade later. The report criticises an NHS approach focused on classifying people as unfit rather than supporting return to work, singling out the fit note system. The benefits system is also faulted, spending £25 on payments for every £1 on employment support. Available help often targets those with fewer obstacles, leaving others unsupported. While anxiety rates are similar to the Netherlands, the UK NEET rate is higher. The labour market adds difficulties, with young people describing repeated rejections via AI screening and fewer entry-level roles in retail and similar sectors. Employers show less willingness to hire younger staff amid higher minimum wages and perceived support needs. Structural problems extend to housing, where many young people see home ownership as unattainable.
