Reform UK appears increasingly dependent on socially conservative positions to attract voters, which may limit its ability to raise poll numbers further, according to extensive research led by psephologist John Curtice. Analysis of the party within the British Social Attitudes report showed that while Reform backers often express frustration with politicians and public services, newer supporters displayed stronger opinions on topics including diversity and welfare. Since these perspectives represent a minority viewpoint among the electorate, Curtice noted that backing for Reform could stabilize near its present levels in the mid to high twenties. Around 30 percent may not represent a firm limit, yet the party is unlikely to exceed that threshold substantially because of the campaign themes it highlights, Curtice stated. He is affiliated with the National Centre for Social Research, which has conducted the yearly British Social Attitudes study since 1983. He suggested this figure could still suffice to secure victory in a general election given the current splintering of voter preferences under the first-past-the-post system. The emphasis on social and cultural matters implies that efforts by Keir Starmer to enhance services like the NHS alone may not halt Reform’s growth, Curtice observed. Improving national conditions would assist but might prove insufficient against the party’s distinct ideological appeal. The survey questioned over 4,600 individuals throughout the UK and identified common traits among Reform supporters. These individuals tend to have supported Brexit, be older, male, and hold fewer formal qualifications, with only 9 percent of graduates favoring the party compared to 40 percent of those with education below A-level standard. A key pattern involved skepticism toward politicians and government effectiveness, including greater dissatisfaction with the NHS and agreement that politicians discuss excessively while acting too little. They also reported higher concern over personal finances. Attitudes on social topics stood out notably, as 67 percent of Reform supporters viewed migrants as harmful to the economy and 75 percent believed they erode British culture, more than double the national rates of 33 percent and 35 percent. Additionally, 88 percent of Reform voters felt opportunities for transgender individuals had advanced too far, versus 48 percent overall. Among Reform supporters, 52 percent held similar views regarding lesbian, gay and bisexual people, and 51 percent regarding black and Asian people, compared to 27 percent and 17 percent nationally. Individuals who combined authoritarian outlooks with dissatisfaction showed particular inclination toward Reform, reaching 46 percent support in that group. Comparison of 2024 supporters with earlier respondents revealed that recent gains stemmed more from ideological alignment than from discontent with services or the economy. The report concluded that while dissatisfaction with healthcare and finances occurs more among Reform backers, the party’s success in drawing those with specific ideological perspectives has driven its increased support since 2024.
