Indian equities could face another volatile week after Iran announced plans to close the Strait of Hormuz following fresh US strikes. The development raises risks of higher crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows and pressure on the rupee. India imports much of its crude, so any blockage could quickly affect inflation, the current account and company margins. Reports indicate the US acted after accusing Iran’s IRGC of attacking a cargo ship in the strait. Iran stated the waterway would stay shut until further notice, while the US called for all lanes to reopen. For investors, sharply rising crude could weigh on the Nifty in coming sessions. The index ended a four-week winning streak last week. The Sensex declined 0.25 percent to 77,569 and the Nifty fell 0.26 percent to 24,207. Midcap and smallcap indices rose more than 1 percent. Banking and IT stocks aided a partial recovery, supported by the start of the first-quarter earnings season. TCS results aligned with expectations and eased some sector worries. Analyst Vinod Nair noted early optimism gave way to caution after West Asia tensions lifted oil prices, though selling proved brief as banking and IT updates improved sentiment. The next sessions will hinge on crude prices, earnings and macro data. Brent crude above 80 dollars per barrel could pressure oil marketing firms, airlines, paints, chemicals and tyre makers while lifting inflation expectations. Banks, IT, pharma, defence and some realty stocks may fare better if earnings hold steady. The Nifty holds immediate support near 23,800-24,000, with a break lower possibly targeting 23,650. Resistance lies at 24,400-24,600. Bank Nifty appears stronger, with upside above 58,800 toward 60,000. Investors will also watch June inflation, trade and forex reserve figures. Foreign investors turned net buyers in July after months of outflows, though renewed conflict or higher oil could reverse that trend. Sustained earnings growth and lower oil prices could support sentiment.
