Political analyst Professor Chandrachud Singh told ThePrint that the defections carry major consequences for Punjab, where most of the departing Rajya Sabha members originated. He indicated that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might leverage this to strengthen its foothold in the region.
Among the seven members who switched from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) to the BJP on Friday, four hail from Punjab: Harbhajan Singh, Vikramjit Singh Sahney, Ashok Mittal, and Sandeep Pathak. With state assembly polls scheduled for next year, this upheaval presents a significant opportunity for the BJP.
New Delhi: Although the defections from the Aam Aadmi Party unfolded publicly in the capital, their repercussions are expected to resonate most strongly in Punjab, the sole state where AAP currently governs.
Analysts believe these exits could lead to further departures in Delhi, where AAP maintains influence, potentially affecting members of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) and state legislators as the party’s standing diminishes. The resignations of Raghav Chadha and Swati Maliwal, formerly close allies of Arvind Kejriwal, may hasten additional shifts.
Professor Chandrachud Singh further noted, ‘Additional defections are likely not only in Punjab but also in Delhi, with more MCD councilors and assembly members possibly seeking alignment with the ruling BJP.’
Observers caution that the Aam Aadmi Party may be approaching a critical juncture threatening its survival.
Political scientist Rahul Verma shared with ThePrint: ‘In contrast to Delhi, where AAP can highlight its administrative achievements, Punjab lacks a similar success story. Criticisms persist regarding governance, including claims that Arvind Kejriwal operates as an overriding chief minister, marginalizing Bhagwant Mann, with limited evidence of progress.’
Verma added, ‘The coming four years pose substantial hurdles. Losing Punjab would complicate recovery, though a return in Delhi remains possible by 2030.’
Such departures from AAP are part of a pattern dating back to 2015, involving early figures like Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, Ashutosh, and Shazia Ilmi.
In a discussion with ThePrint, Shazia Ilmi reflected, ‘I was an early defector. Arvind Kejriwal, driven by expediency, once promised AAP would avoid conventional party pitfalls and focus on a shared mission. My warnings went unheeded, and I faced backlash.’
She continued, ‘Treatment of individuals, particularly women, within the organization raises serious issues. It grew self-serving and manipulative, discarding members deemed unnecessary by Kejriwal.’
Former AAP member Ashutosh echoed these sentiments in a conversation with ThePrint, stating, ‘AAP functions as a single-leader operation without proper framework or processes. No systems exist to resolve grievances among leaders and supporters. Everything centers on Arvind Kejriwal, who lacks skills in team development.’
He attributed exits to the absence of structure and Kejriwal’s authoritarian approach.
Rajendra Pal Gautam, a previous AAP minister, spoke to ThePrint about internal flaws, describing Kejriwal as vindictive and grudge-holding.
‘Kejriwal’s growing authoritarianism makes sustained collaboration challenging. He disregards input and manages the party unilaterally, often overlooking representation for scheduled castes, tribes, other backward classes, and minorities,’ Gautam explained.
Despite this, AAP leaders project confidence publicly. Following Raghav Chadha’s departure announcement, senior figure Sanjay Singh held a media briefing, labeling Chadha and others as betrayers.
‘The BJP employed government resources to instill fear through Operation Lotus. Punjab’s residents will remember these individuals who betrayed them,’ Singh declared.
Insiders at AAP expressed optimism, viewing the situation as an opportunity, especially with potential clearance for Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor policy matter.
They acknowledged the losses as regrettable but anticipated, adding, ‘We have dedicated members ready to step up; leadership is abundant.’
‘With Manish Sisodia overseeing Punjab operations, improvements are underway. We remain committed and expect minimal disruption,’ the sources stated.
However, Rahul Verma called the scale of MP defections extraordinary.
‘This development has undoubtedly shaken the party. They might have foreseen Chadha’s exit, but losing two-thirds of their Rajya Sabha representatives was unexpected,’ he noted.
