Emmanuel Macron, hosting the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, has shaped the agenda to appeal to his main guest. Yet the French president remains uncertain whether Donald Trump, known for irregular attendance, will remain for the full three days or cause interruptions. The US president left the previous G7 meeting in Kananaskis, Canada, early due to the Iran situation, and similar issues may arise again. Last year he criticised Macron as publicity-seeking before departing. Macron, attending his tenth G7 summit, avoided confrontation and delayed the start so Trump could mark his 80th birthday at a UFC event. He offers a Versailles dinner on Wednesday as incentive for staying the full period, noting mutual respect. Completion remains uncertain. Reports indicate Trump is not in a festive mood and may criticise the other six leaders from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK for not supporting his earlier plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force. He may instead press for swift action on a planned Franco-British naval taskforce under the US-Iran memorandum. Urgent de-mining is also required to clear tankers. Other leaders, opposed to the Iran conflict, must decide whether to focus forward or assess its economic effects. Trump has downplayed the war’s impact, telling Fox News that oil prices rose less than expected and expressing approval of inflation. The World Bank lowered its global growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest since the pandemic. The Bank of Japan may raise rates to a 31-year high amid rising wholesale prices. Europe’s central bank increased rates for the first time since 2023 over inflation concerns above 3%. France’s central bank governor warned of persistent inflation, citing doubled container rates and rising commodity prices of 22%. The world’s poorest nations face the greatest strain as aid declines. Trump may also face questions on Ukraine and Gaza. Macron seeks greater European involvement, noting Europe’s role in supporting Ukraine. An EU envoy proposal exists but faces scepticism. Defence credibility is questioned after project setbacks and UK ministerial changes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends Tuesday, citing battlefield gains alongside high civilian casualties in May. France will urge US action on Gaza disarmament. Trump will meet Qatar, UAE and Egypt leaders, but no joint statement is planned; Macron will issue summaries instead. Concise statements will follow sessions on minerals, artificial intelligence, conflict damage and international reforms.
