El NiƱo, marked by unusually warm Pacific waters that alter global weather, has intensified and could rank among the strongest events since 1950, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA reported an 81 percent chance of a very strong phase from October to December. The pattern forms one half of the El NiƱo Southern Oscillation, which drives extreme weather worldwide. It generally raises global temperatures and reduces rainfall over India, leading to expectations of below-normal monsoon totals this year. The phase is identified when sea surface temperatures in the NiƱo 3.4 region exceed 0.5Ā°C above average. The India Meteorological Department forecast slightly below-normal rainfall across much of the country through July 22, with normal levels possible in Rajasthan, parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and north interior Karnataka. July rainfall is projected at under 94 percent of the long-term average. The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to stay neutral and unlikely to offset El NiƱo impacts. The current event started in June, reached a 1.2Ā°C anomaly, and is forecast to strengthen and persist into early 2027 with a 97 percent likelihood. Strong events exceed 1.5Ā°C and very strong ones surpass 2Ā°C. The 2015-2016 episode, which lasted nearly two years, produced some of the driest Indian monsoons this century. Earlier very strong phases occurred in 1997-98, 1991-92, and 1982-83.
